For example, if the pot were 5 big bets on the turn, and it would cost you one big bet to call, you are getting 5 to 1 odds to call. Suppose you had a hand that would win 1 time for every 5 times it lost. In that case, if you were getting 5 to 1 odds from the pot, then your call would have an average result of zero, right on the border between calling and folding. If the pot were any bigger (like if you could expect a call on the river) then it would be clear case to call, and if the pot were any smaller, then it would be a clear case to fold.
Before explaining how to figure out precisely whether or not you should chase, here are some guidelines:
Rules of thumb for calling on the turn: Usually, call one bet with open-ended staight draws and flush draws, and with a medium pot size you can call two cold. With a set you should usually be calling all bets (or raising, of course.) Two overcards are usually no good to draw with on the turn, except sometimes heads-up. When the pot is big, you can call with a gutshot straight draw to the nuts.
Keep track of bets:
With a little practice, you can be a lot more precise. You can learn to keep track of the big bets going into the pot almost subconsciously, and hence you can know the current pot size at all times. With a little experience, you can estimate the amount of additional action there will be. And your chance of winning is simply represented by your number of outs.
Your effective pot size is how much you can expect to win at the end if you indeed win. It's the current pot size plus expected action. Generally that will be at least one big bet bigger than the current pot size, possibly many more big bets if you expect a lot of action.
Your effective pot odds are the effective pot size divided by the amount you have to call.
You should at least call when your effective outs times one more than the effective pot odds is greater than the number of unseen cards. The number of unseen cards is usually 46 on the turn or 47 on the flop. Recast the effective pot size in units of the number of bets you will need to call.
BUYING A FREE CARD
You can raise in late position on the flop with the intention of checking it through on the turn. Seeing the river card is not free in this case, but half price. Actually, it's a bit less than half price, since your flop drawing odds are better than your turn drawing odds. Savvy opponents are well aware of this play from flush draws, however, and may thwart it by betting into you on the turn. Use this play sparingly, mostly when you have big overcards versus a few weak opponents, and you can always adopt-a-flush-draw if the flush draw comes in (that is, bet to represent a made flush.)
SEMI-BLUFFING
Your opponents cannot fold if you never bet or raise. Betting or raising usually is worth at least 4 outs, sometimes 20 or more outs, in terms of increasing your chance of winning the pot. Sometimes when you would have to check and fold rather than check and call, you can bet profitably instead. The combination of a chance of winning with your draw and a chance of your opponents all folding can make betting (or raising) more profitable than checking (or folding.) David Sklansky coined the term "semi-bluffing" to describe this concept.
If you've been betting hard the whole the way, your opponents may not put you on a draw, and may fold to your bet on the come, or to your bluff bet on the river, allowing you to steal a large pot. For this reason, and since you presumably cannot win in a showdown without making your hand, think twice about taking a free card on the turn, if you think a bet there or on the river might buy you the pot.
A MADE HAND WITH A DRAW
Sometimes you will have a pair and a flush draw, or other combination of a hand that may be best and a draw. When your made hand is vulnerable or likely already beaten by fairly weak hands, you usually should play such a hand very hard, trying to force out better hands and hands that could draw out on your made hand, with your draw as a backup in case you get called down by a better hand. Even with a very strong hand like a made straight with a flush draw, you might wish to play it hard, hoping to get almost unlimited reraises from an equivalent straight that you are "freerolling" to beat with your flush.
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