Copyright 1999, Abdul Jalib
After the flop, we calculate our chances :
If you have the best of it on additional money going into the pot, you should try to maximize the additional money going into the pot. If given the money in the pot by the end you have odds to chase, you should at least call. Keep in mind that betting or raising will often give you additional ways to win the pot. If you don't have odds to chase or bluff, you should fold.
BETTING OR RAISING FOR IMMEDIATE PROFIT
Try to get money into the pot if you will win the pot more than your fair share. You will win more than your fair share of the time when you have more than the number of outs shown below for the number of opponents:
Betting or Raising
Breakeven Win Chance & Outs for # of Opponents
# Opponents Who
Will Be Calling Chance to Win You Need
to be Breakeven on Bet Corresponding
Number of Outs
1 1 in 2 23
2 1 in 3 15 1/3
3 1 in 4 11 1/2
4 1 in 5 9 1/5
5 1 in 6 7 2/3
6 1 in 7 6 1/2
7 1 in 8 5 3/4
8 1 in 9 5 1/9
When you have a strong draw, you usually want to keep people in, so think carefully about how to keep them in while increasing the pot size. Consider all your options. When no one has bet you can check-call, bet, or check-raise, and when facing a bet you can call, raise, or call-reraise.
Your outs are the number of cards that will complete your hand. For example, if you have JT and the board is KQ23, then any ace or nine will give you the nut straight, and there are four of each of those, so you have 8 outs. Here are some of the common draws:
Outs When Drawing One Card
Draw on the Turn Outs
4-straight & 4-flush => straight or flush 15
set => full house or quads 10
4-flush => flush 9
overpair vs 2-pair => better 2-pair or set 8
4-straight => straight 8
4-straight vs 4-flush => straight vs no flush 6
overcards => top pair 6
pair using board card => trips or two pair 5
gutshot straight draw => straight 4
two pair => full house 4
pocket pair => set 2
Your effective outs are your potential outs fudged downwards to better reflect your actual chances of winning the pot. For example, if there is a two flush on board and you think the flush draw is out there, then instead of 8 outs for a straight draw you effectively have only 6, as the other 2 cards bring in your opponent's flush draw.
On the flop, if you are planning on taking your draw to the river, then you effectively have a bit less than double the number of outs for one card:
Equivalent Outs When Drawing Two Cards
Draw on the Flop and Turn Outs
4-straight & 4-flush => straight or flush 25 1/2
set => full house or quads 15 1/2
4-nut-flush => nut flush 16 1/2
4-baby-flush vs. one => 5-flush 15
4-straight => straight 14 1/2
overpair vs 2-pair => 2-pair, set, etc 12 1/2
4-baby-flush vs. many => only 5-flush 12
nonpair => pair 11 1/2
gut shot straight draw => straight 7 1/2
two pair => strong full house or quads 7
3-straight & 3-flush => straight or flush 3
3-flush => flush 1 1/2
3-straight => 4-straight => straight 1 1/2
For the runner-runner draws, you need to use both your cards, except for an ace that makes a 3-flush. You should usually treat them as just 1 out, not 1 1/2 or 2, since a lot of things can go wrong with them.
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