We collapse because it's our time....

Collectively we decide to rob our future and spend it now. Therefore our empire like all empires disappears.  This means we spend more time, energy, manpower etc. to maintain the status quo. Eventually, their isn't enough of these  to save us and we collapse inward until we reach stasis or equilibrium. Until a crisis further damages or threatens the elite and they pool more of the diminishing assets to protect themselves.

Leaving more and more destitute or independent members to start the next country as the elites are murdered and lose everything because fewer of us will defend them with our kids as their soldiers or policemen.

But what do we say about an empire that doesn't make anything but takes it. Trading paper for real goods and sending their best and bravest to kill others to protect and  enrich themselves?

Think they're going to be around for ever? Do we really want them to?


Peak Civilization | FINANCIAL SENSE

The industrial capital stock grows to a level that requires an enormous input of resources. In the very process of that growth it depletes a large fraction of the resources available. As resource prices rise and mines are depleted, more and more capital must be used for obtaining resources, leaving less to be invested for future growth. Finally investment cannot keep up with depreciation, and the industrial base collapses, taking with it the service and agricultural systems, which have become dependent on industrial inputs.

Considering just two elements, instead of five, is not in contradiction with the more complex model. It makes sense especially when you are not considering a whole empire but something more limited, for instance the oil industry. Here are the results of this approach, this time with the equations written in clear.

peak civilization