Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Did I mention" double dip?".....

Maybe there was never a recovery at all. Our store sales have collapsed again. Down 4% from last year. A year that was atrocious at best.

Patti and I had our hours cut by 7 next week.  Hope that's all.

Hussman: A Double Dip Recession is Coming | Credit Writedowns
The following is an excerpt of the Weekly Market Commentary By John Hussman.

Based on evidence that has always and only been observed during or immediately prior to U.S. recessions, the U.S. economy appears headed into a second leg of an unusually challenging downturn.

A few weeks ago, I noted that our recession warning composite was on the brink of a signal that has always and only occurred during or immediately prior to U.S. recessions, the last signal being the warning I reported in the November 12, 2007 weekly comment Expecting A Recession. While the set of criteria I noted then would still require a decline in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index to 54 or less to complete a recession warning, what prompts my immediate concern is that the growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index has now declined to -6.9%. The WLI growth rate has historically demonstrated a strong correlation with the ISM Purchasing Managers Index, with the correlation being highest at a lead time of 13 weeks.


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