Thursday, January 22, 2009

David Mink should know......

In poker we have an expression that always hits the nail on the head....never throw good money after bad. These banks are broke and need to be dismantled. Good loans need to be kept and bad need to be liquidated.

But mostly we need to take back our credit system from the gangsters who got us into this mess. If Obama can do that he will become a hero and get all of our votes.

Since most everyone in government seems to be involved one way or another, I aint betting on it. Instead he'll give them more and more money destroying any chance of permanently fixing the problem.

Too many people in Washington have been on the take. They feel Ob is just another body to fill the office. Time will tell if putting off the reform needed will last more than his first term.

In less than 10 years we have 80 or 90 million senior citizens drawing checks and cashing out their 401k's, (most of these people are technically bankrupt) the stock market disappears and the economy falls on its face starved for investment funds for business growth.

Not closing out loser financial entities compounds the problem. And not having any control of our money that went over seas will simply come back to bite us in the ass.

Basically it means getting a handle on our overseas cash flow ...trade deficits from buying more goods than we produce and especially sending 400 billion a year offshore to our enemies in the oil producing countries.
 
Until we get control of our oil supply, by conquering, conserving, replacing or drilling, we are owned by these guys lock, stock, and barrel.

No country in history has ever survived under these conditions with out war.

Trust me.
Conversation with the Author

I have known most of the world’s central bankers in recent decades, including Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, and Ben Bernanke. All would admit the power of the central bank is rapidly diminishing. Worse, in the case of the United States, interest rates have increasingly become a captive of global financial forces. To a certain extent, therefore, Americans are no longer in complete control of their own monetary policy. That is why central banks, led by the Fed, have become a kind of grand global theater. Because the world’s ocean of capital is so huge and powerful, the central bankers have had no choice but to become the lead actors. They use their dramatic skills to try to tease, persuade, charm, and bluff the markets. And of course the Lawrence Olivier of this process was Alan Greenspan. It’s not quite like The Wizard of Oz with the little man behind the curtain pulling the levers, but the analysis is not completely off the mark. In the end, the incredible shrinking of central bank influence over financial markets is a primary reason the world is curved.

So what’s the future of the world financial system?

The financial world is still a dangerous place. That’s because the world is flirting with moving away from the last quarter-century’s model of globalization and free-flowing capital markets toward something more reminiscent of the nineteenth-century mercantilist economic model. What I’m describing is an era of backroom rivalries, deal making, and tensions based on ambitious national political agendas with capital flows, and commodities led by oil, increasingly controlled by governments. One does not have to be a rocket scientist to see the picture emerging: financial wealth and power are moving away from the United States, Europe, and Japan.

What does this shift mean for the United States in particular, for the jobs and savings of average Americans?

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Make my day........

Lost their asses. Ha ha. Why am I so happy these bloodsuckers got theirs. Remember these guys declared war on us when Jimmy was president. They all should have been bombed and we could have replaced most of their oil with nuke power and belt tightening.

Now we have to periodically conquer a small oil company. We already did it to Iraq. Twice.

Iran was ours until "79 when these people declared war on the hapless Jimmy Carter and he cried in the White House on TV.

Then he gave away the Panama Canal and the voters decided this guy was such a wimp even a Hollywood "B" actor would do a good job.

Then the enemy headed for the tall grass and sent there kids with bombs strapped to their asses into the world to make the world safe for Allah .

Make no mistake, these are the enemy. And our children and grandchildren will kill or be killed by them.

With our money!!!
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The global financial meltdown has cost Arab nations $2.5 trillion in four months and led to 60 percent of development projects in the Persian Gulf region being put off or scrapped, Kuwait’s foreign minister said.

“This just shows the huge damage caused by the crisis,” Sheikh Mohammed Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah, also Kuwait’s acting oil minister, said yesterday at a news conference during the Arab Economic Summit in Kuwait City.

Oil has tumbled 75 percent from a July high, as the global economy sank into recession, straining budgets of crude exporters. Saudi Arabia, Oman and Dubai, the second-largest sheikdom in the United Arab Emirates, say they’ll run deficits next year as low prices squeeze revenue. Also, sovereign wealth funds have been hurt by falling stock markets. The New York- based Council on Foreign Relations estimates a fund held by Abu Dhabi, the largest sheikdom in the UAE, lost $125 billion.

“It’s not in the interests of the global economy for oil prices to collapse or have huge increases,” Sheikh Mohammed said. “There should be stability to oil prices.”

Kuwait appointed Sheikh Mohammed acting oil minister on Jan. 12 as the third-largest OPEC producer formed its fifth cabinet since February 2006 after opposition lawmakers forced the previous government to resign.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Ob's now president......

So?


The Audacity of Hype by Gary North

The Medicare Act of 1965 made it impossible to avoid a national default. The numbers are horrendous. Occasionally, a subcommittee of Congress invites an economist to come and testify on this. The testimony gets no publicity. The committee chairman thanks the economist, who then returns to obscurity.

This fiscal year, the combined unfunded liability of Social Security and Medicare will be in the range of $75 trillion. No one in government notices, other than Ron Paul and a few similarly minded House members. No one cares. Such numbers are considered naïve. They are only numbers. Numbers above $1 billion do not register mentally. Parkinson told us this during Eisenhower's Administration. Nothing has changed.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Don't let the Socialist fool you.....

Reganomics worked until Republicans became Liberals on fiscal policy. (As well as making war on non oil producing countries.)

Some of us can remember Carter crying in the White House over mean Iranians and OPEC nut jobs holding our embassy employees hostage. 

Or paying %16 interest on a new house.

How about driving our business overseas.

Carter started the Empire moving off shore and Clinton finished it. Our Oil industry was destroyed by these nut jobs, remember?

No body could seriously expect our businesses to stick around and be abused by the left wing green policies  and their sycophants in the Media.

 Now days going into business is practically an exercise in futility after all the regs, rules, tax commitments you have to take on.

You have to go underground to get ahead then worry about the Government stealing everything you own.

Making it on wages will get tougher in the future because of all these deficits that have to be paid.

Expect sales taxes (including a national tax) to explode as soon as this borrowing takes effect.

Somebody has to pay.

Look in the mirror.
The American Spectator : Obama's Race to the Past

On regulation, Reagan specifically campaigned in 1980 on unleashing the private sector to produce more energy supplies to counter the energy crisis of his day. He did so soon after entering office, and the price of oil and natural gas plunged and remained low for over 25 years. If we did the same today, if we removed needless regulatory barriers to increased oil and gas and nuclear energy production, we would enjoy booming energy industries that contributed mightily to the economy. We would also boost the entire economy, but particularly manufacturing, with low cost, reliable supplies of energy.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Want to go into business?......

Are you nuts?
oftwominds

Here in King County they passed a 'growth ordinance' back in 1993. People who had owned 5 acre tracts of land to the east of the Seattle suburbs suddenly found that all they could do was build ONE house on those five acre tracts. No more subdividing the land. The tree-huggers in Seattle were all full of glee about it -- though they will never even visit these areas in their lifetime. The idea was to 'protect' this area from too much growth and 'save' it. The end result was to significantly drive up home prices in the County, drive gowth MUCH further out, and either make housing less affordable or commutes longer and more expensive.

But it gets worse. I have friends who own some of these now minimum 5 acre tracts. Want to cut a tree down? Good luck. The county takes aerial photos (in detail) and compares them periodically. Cut a few trees and find yourself facing stiff fines. Fill in a puddle larger than 5 feet across and you may be cited for wetland destruction.

And forget about cutting invasive weeds like blackberry, since that is now considered 'natural habitat'. Of your five acres, you really get to use no more than 1/3 of it, and the rest has to stay they way it is/was. What sense does all this make? One of them has tried to get a permit to do a little work on their property. The county has neither denied it nor approved it -- a common occurance.

The county follows a path of passive-aggresive response to growth. Do nothing. In the meantime my friends have spent many thousands of doallars in submission fees seeking approval that may never come as there is no downside to doing nothing. I told them to start showing up in person EVERY DAY at the permit offices demanding either approval or denail. This way they can either get going, or sue for lack of approval on no real basis.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Don't let the Socialist fool you.....

Reganomics worked until Republicans became Liberals on fiscal policy. (As well as making war on non oil producing countries.)

Some of us can remember Carter crying in the White House over mean Iranians and OPEC nut jobs holding our embassy employees hostage. 

Or paying %16 interest on a new house.

How about driving our business overseas.

Carter started the Empire moving off shore and Clinton finished it. Our Oil industry was destroyed by these nut jobs, remember?

No body could seriously expect our businesses to stick around and be abused by the left wing green policies  and their sycophants in the Media.

 Now days going into business is practically an exercise in futility after all the regs, rules, tax commitments you have to take on.

You have to go underground to get ahead then worry about the Government stealing everything you own.

Making it on wages will get tougher in the future because of all these deficits that have to be paid.

Expect sales taxes (including a national tax) to explode as soon as this borrowing takes effect.

Somebody has to pay.

Look in the mirror
The American Spectator : Obama's Race to the Past

On regulation, Reagan specifically campaigned in 1980 on unleashing the private sector to produce more energy supplies to counter the energy crisis of his day. He did so soon after entering office, and the price of oil and natural gas plunged and remained low for over 25 years. If we did the same today, if we removed needless regulatory barriers to increased oil and gas and nuclear energy production, we would enjoy booming energy industries that contributed mightily to the economy. We would also boost the entire economy, but particularly manufacturing, with low cost, reliable supplies of energy.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Bad bank my ass.......

Read carefully...... Need "bad bank" to buy up bad assets of the banking crash. Funded by taxpayers. Hmmmm... One big bad bank buying all the worlds assets? Wow. How do you control it? If I'm a Green do I get a car loan? House? What if I vote wrong?

No wonder we're all getting paranoid!
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke called for “a comprehensive plan to stabilize the financial system and restore normal flows of credit,” in a Jan. 13 speech in London. He outlined options including a bad bank, “which would purchase assets from financial institutions in exchange for cash and equity.”

Bernanke was in Europe for meetings with his counterparts from the world’s largest central banks to discuss the state of the global economy and financial markets. He met with U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown the next day.

European policy makers are also struggling to restart lending in their region, with some considering purchases of toxic assets. The U.K. and Germany this week announced new programs to guarantee loans to companies.

‘Time Bombs’

“Buying toxic assets from banks is a good thing because I think confidence comes back into the banking system when you are certain -- or more certain -- that you have no time bombs ticking,” said Josef Ackermann, chairman of the Institute of International Finance, the Washington-based group that includes most of the world’s large banks.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

AH the good old days......

Wait until it dawns on people that all the Blue states are bust and Democrats are in charge, and have been, then let's see if OB can survive. He'll be busy taking care of all those broke dick voters. Union bosses, bureaucrats, and various ass kissers.

Need more small oil producing countries to pay for this. No problem!

Tax cuts for everyone. Free tax credits. Debt moratoriums.

Everybody join a union or else! All radio and TV stations get in line and no more government bashing if you want your check.

Yes! let the good times roll.

Can't wait to buy one  or two of these beauties.

Radical cheap: $1,000 homes - Jan. 8, 2009

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The real estate market is so awful that buyers are now scooping up homes for as little as $1,000.

There are 18 listings in Flint, Mich., for under $3,000, according to Realtor.com. There are 22 in Indianapolis, 46 in Cleveland and a whopping 709 in Detroit. All of these communities have been hit hard by foreclosures, and most of these homes are being sold by the lenders that repossessed them.

"Foreclosures have turned banks into property management companies," said Heather Fernandez, a spokeswoman for Trulia.com, the real estate Web site. "And it's often cheaper for them to give these homes away rather than try to get market value for them."

In Detroit for instance, Century 21 Villa owner Randy Eissa has a three-bedroom, one-bath bungalow of about 1,000 square feet listed at just $500. It's a nice place with lots of light, but it needs a total rehabilitation inside, which Eissa estimates will cost between $15,000 and $20,000. But that's not bad, considering that the home last sold for $72,000 in late 2007, according to Zillow.com.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

The higher interest rate saves housing.......

Sounds counter intuitive but true. Lower rates mean more broke dicks can qualify for more expensive houses. This keeps prices above prudent levels. That is your your monthly payment including tax and insurance should be less than 1/3 gross monthly income .

For instance, average wages are 54000 in California which gives us 4500 a month. Times 1/3 = 1530 a month for total payment. This will buy a house in California for about 275000 after a 55000 down.

Which means you can move into Compton or San Bernadino. On the wrong side of town. For 55 gs down. Assuming average wages are 54000.

I'll take 2.

Even with FHA financing the down would 13750 + 3000 closing cost.

I think prices have a loooooong way to go down, don't you?

I'll stick with mobile homes. I can buy all I want for less than 30000 and have peanuts for rent. I bought mine for 24000, including furniture, for 5000 down, no credit, nothing for expenses. $524 a month 3 years. Lot rent 160 a month. Probably do the same in Florida after the crash eases.

Mobiles can't be financed by banks. Need my credit union to fix me up. With 2 years on the job and 700 credit they beg people to borrow.

Could refi this one after I pay it off this Christmas and by another somewhere. Should be able to borrow 10000 or so for my retirement home.

Time will prove me right when I predict my generation is fucked for retirement. Need a cheap place to live? I have a mobile for you. Couple thousand down and 300 a month + lot rent.

Easy money for me nice place for broke dick senior citizens.

My landlord is 80 years old and buys and sells them year in year out. I used to sell house for others and see a pretty interesting future in doing it for my self. Time will tell.

patrick.net

Realtors hunting for the few fools not yet parted with their money keep insisting that low rates are a good thing for buyers. Not true. Low interest rates make it a bad time to buy.

First of all, house prices move inversely to interest rates. If rates have nowhere to go but up, then prices have nowhere to go but down.

Secondly, anyone buying with an adjustable rate will get a nasty surprise when his rate later increases at the same time that the value of his house has fallen.

Though I suppose if you get a 30-year fixed rate loan and don’t care about resale value because you never plan to leave, then maybe it’s OK to buy and bet that inflation will wipe out most of your loan. Not many signs of inflation yet, so such a bet might not pay off.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

......Be Afraid.... Very Afraid

No government can control the Empire. Once the world's elite got a taste of freedom and the power there is no stopping it. Blaming Bush or the Fed is silly. None of these guys could do much of anything to stop the panic. Only time will cure this.

Everything has to unwind and reset. No one trusts anyone right now.

Especially when the presidential  contest last year scared the piss out of them. OB threatened free trade, remember?

"Protectionism" is terrifying to the greedy bastards. Fuck America is their feelings as far as we can tell.

As far as we're concerned most modern economies are in the same boat: Old people. Feed them or kill them.

 Check out this guy writing 2 years ago.
The Great Depression of 2006: May 2006

The baby boomer's are about to retire. Imagine what will happen when they decide to withdraw money from their retirement accounts because Social Security, just isn't enough.

How about the fund manager, who will notice that more money is leaving the fund than is being deposited. Common sense tells him to sell the dogs in his portfolio and hold on to Google.

Is it my imagination, that the airlines and the auto industry just had a pay cut.

Gasoline and gold doubled in price? Or did we devalue the dollar without telling anyone?

Monday, January 12, 2009

The union Label.............

California. Need to save it. Union money most be saved. Dems can't compete with Repubs with out it. Auto workers, Teachers and don't forget construction unions must be stimulated.

 Yes time to join up and get a job. Who needs store clerks when we can build new highways for all those cars that only teachers will be able to afford to drive.

My daughter Mary will have to go back to teaching. Her husband is already a union construction worker. Should be all right for awhile.

Daughter Tracy will be a surgical tech and stay in the medical field because we will have National health care. (Bet on it!) Her husband will also be in the field shortly.

Jeremy is a supervisor at an airplane plant. Building bush planes for government entities. Should be safe until everybody has one.

Patty and I are OK until everyone moves out of the area. Walmart is here for the duration. Our store is  making $80 million a year here.

See how long it last.

Plan on spending my old age in Florida. May find a mobile home cheap there or a RV.  Should be plenty around.

Even though in the long run Florida will be over run with broke dick Yankees I still think the climate is worth it.

Speaking of which since these people will have to have a place to live I might consider buying trailers for cash and selling them with payments. Good money can be made if done right. My landlord here does it all the time and he's 84 years old.

Later.
The American Spectator : Golden Apples

An even larger bill comes in the form of unfunded costs for teacher healthcare deals. School districts -- and ultimately, taxpayers -- will pick up $16 billion in unfunded healthcare payments on behalf of retiring teachers. This includes the $10 billion in as-yet-to-be funded health insurance payments owed by the Los Angeles Unified School District, the nation's second-largest (and most visibly dysfunctional) school district. The tiny Encinitas Union School District near San Diego, which educates a mere 5,600 elementary school children, has $4 billion in unfunded healthcare payments.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

I want my check.......

They'll give us the money a few bucks a week and we wont even notice. Still the next stimulus, let's say by Xmas, should be at least $5000.

Then the sky's the limit!
Congress.org - We Don't Need a Stimulus Package - Do This Instead

We Don't Need a Stimulus Package - Do This Instead
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THE PROPOSED STIMULUS PACKAGE?
President-elect Barack Obama proposed a stimulus package of $800 billion. The proposed package consists of $300 billion in tax cuts and $500 billion in spending.
The tax cuts would be geared at lower and middle income workers in the form of $500 per worker ($1000 for couples) tax credits on your payroll taxes rather than a check sent in the mail. Businesses would receive various tax cuts including some geared at encouraging employers to hire new workers or delay lay-offs. The tax cut portion of the package is geared at recruiting Republican support in Congress. The tax cuts would be greater than the tax cuts enacted by President George W. Bush.
The spending provision focuses on infrastructure such as highway and bridge repair. It would also provide aid to states struggling with declining revenue in the form of expanding health care funding such as paying more of the states Medicare costs. Under consideration is further unemployment benefits and health care coverage for unemployed workers.
Republicans are demanding the aid to states be in the form of loans, rather than grants. They are also demanding a go-slow approach to the bill to allow for enough hearings,and review to catch any waste. Supporters and certain economists say that the stimulus package needs passed quickly to avert further job losses and a deepening of the recession. Initially, Congress hoped to pass a bill by the Inauguration of President Obama, but it appears that a realistic goal is the February recess of Congress instead.
What do you think needs done? Should the stimulus bill be passed quickly basically as currently proposed? Or should Congress take more time? And what provisions would you like to see changed, added or deleted to it? What should be done to stimulate the economy of the United States? Or should nothing be done?


Friday, January 09, 2009

Memo to President OB.......

Send me my check so I can buy supper.

Thanks.
LewRockwell.com Blog: Unemployment Jumps to 7.2%!

Unemployment Jumps to 7.2%!
Posted by Lew Rockwell at January 9, 2009 08:15 AM

That's the headline. In fact, if the government still figured that statistic as it did before the manipulations of Reagan and Clinton, it would be more than 16%, as economist John Williams shows. All government economic statistics have serious theoretical problems, but as Murray Rothbard pointed out, the trend can tell us something, but only if the method remains the same. Government finagles with the method to try to hide its crimes of monetary depreciation and the resulting unemplyment-producing business cycle.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Give them the "fuckin" money.....

Ha ha.

What kind of hand job... oops.. handout can these guys expect? Free rubbers? Mattresses?

Ain't America wonderful?

Meanwhile, A friend of mine who works in a local down town restaurant has two of his paychecks bounce.

Sign of the times I guess.
Adult Entertainment Industry Wants a Bailout - FOXBusiness.com

With the financial industry, auto makers and more getting assistance from the federal government to stay afloat during the recession, the adult industry decided it would try to get something as well.

Girls Gone Wild CEO Joe Francis and “Hustler” magazine publisher Larry Flynt have said they will petition Congress for financial aid along the lines of what the Big Three auto makers are getting.

Francis said that he and Flynt are asking for $5 billion, and that they have sent letters to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Congress and their local Congressman, Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) with the proposal. Rep. Waxman's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

With the $5 billion, they would "invest in building new means of distribution, and shoring up our distribution right now to prevent further erosion from factors like Youporn and other Internet content that has seriously affected our business over the past few years," Francis said in an interview with FOX Business. "We will use the money wisely, and we will create more jobs."

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

It's trucking, stupid.........

Seems to be a lot of food being bought this year. I spent about 500 so far. Shelves at the store are being emptied. Maybe we can't get the stuff. Remains to be seen if we have shortages.

However, I do know our sales have been down from last year over all.

Since Walmart dominates in the area it is the bellwether we have to compare with. Unemployment going up in the area and we ain't going to hire for a long time. I think we are over staffed now. Also, I don't expect any bonuses for the year.

So far the local grocery store, 30 miles from Wally World, has plenty. We'll see how long it last.

It's a thin long line of trucks that feed us.


The Fraud of the Great Moderation

We're headed, it seems, toward a fall "crunch time," and that crunching sound will not be of cheez doodles and taco chips consumed on the sofas of America. I think we're heading into a season of hoarding. As the presidential campaign moves into its final round, Americans may be hard-up for both food and gasoline. On the oil scene, the next event on the horizon is not just higher prices but shortages. Chances are, they will occur first in the Southeast states because oil exports from Mexico and Venezuela feeding the Gulf of Mexico refineries are down more than 30 percent over 2007.

Perhaps more ominous is the discontent on the trucking scene. Truckers are going broke in droves, unable to carry on their business while getting paid $2000 for loads that cost them $3000 to deliver. In Europe last week, enraged truckers paralyzed the food distribution networks of Spain and Portugal. The passivity of U.S. truckers so far has been a striking feature of the general zombification of American life. They might continue to just crawl off one-by-one and die. But it's also possible that, at some point, they'll mount a Night-of-the-Living-Dead offensive and take their vengeance out on "the system" that has brought them to ruin. America has only about a three-day supply of food in any of its supermarkets.

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

The future as seen so far......

Oil set to go nuts. Gas prices too. Not much help for the Dems. Reid
could be toast as Las Vegas goes bust.

 Jews need to kill everybody over
there and put an end to it. If not they disappear from history in the
Middle East. They are starting now because OB is a fucking Moslem and
can't be trusted very far.

Should see stocks going up for awhile as OB
love sets in. I'm get my credit in shape for all the bargains that will
be around. I haven't borrowed shit until last year. Expect big bargains
as our local unemployment rate here in Idaho hit 11%.

Wait until it hits 30%.

Expect bigger hand out from Dem's this year. Rumor has it at 500$ per adult. Chicken shit. Make it 5000$ coupon for a new truck and I'm in. Why give the money to the union bosses when I will spend it on a new truck for my new business.

We old farts have to look out for our selves for many more years as our retirement money goes to that great black hole called the stock market. Wait to you here the bitching over that when we are to old and crippled to work.

Expect a lot of guns to go off.


Those who forget the Past.....

Russia is again in tough shit. China could implode. Maybe nothing will save the Empire this time. With the governments all over the world cranking up the printing presses we shall see.

Probably  the most interesting 20 years coming up since the fall of Rome. Wonder if historians will be able to scrape up these blogs and  explain it properly:

people are people and will do what they do.
The Daily Reckoning

Beginning in the 19th century, factories in England and New England transformed the value of a working man. Instead of being equal to his counterpart in China or India - as he had been for a thousand years - he suddenly was superior; he could produce more. By the 21st century, the average day laborer in Britain and America earned 10 to 20 times more than his confrere in Asia.

Of course, the English speakers had rivals. They were challenged by other Europeans…and the Japanese. All learned that the same machines that produced wealth could destroy it even faster. The Germans were particularly tenacious competitors. By 1910, their factory output was greater than that of the UK. By 1940, they were trying to blow up England's factories. But England and America ganged up against them. In a couple costly wars in the first half of the 20th century, the Teuton threat was finally crushed.

By 1945, The Anglo-American empire had only one challenger still standing - the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Militarily, the USSR was a real menace. But commercially, it was no more than a comic footnote in economic history. At first, the weakness in the Soviet's system was not obvious…especially not to economists. The figures - put out by the USSR - showed rapid growth. But nobody flew to Moscow to buy the latest fashions nor bragged about his Soviet auto. Nor did people hasten to open accounts in Russian banks or seek heart transplants in Soviet hospitals. The Soviets had managed to create a rare thing - a value-subtracting economy. They took valuable raw materials out of the ground and turned them into worthless finished products. If he had a choice, no one would buy soviet-made goods. Every sale made the seller poorer. And the longer this went on, the poorer the Russians got. Finally, the whole system caved in - in 1989, leaving the Anglo-Americans masters of earth, sky and the seven seas.

This next era, 1989-2007, was remarkably pleasing to almost everyone. Even former enemies rushed to stock the empire's shelves and lend it money.

Monday, January 05, 2009

Oil shocks are such a bitch........


Kunstler's forecast 2009

Many were stunned this year to witness the parabolic rise and fall of oil prices up to nearly $150 and then back around $36 by Christmas time. Quite a ride. I said in The Long Emergency that volatility would be the hallmark of post peak oil because it was obvious that advanced economies could not absorb super high prices and would crash in response; that at some point after crashing, these economies would respond to the new lower oil price, resume their cheap oil habits, and build to another price rise. . . and crash again. . . in a declension of ever-lower industrial activity.
What I probably didn't realize at the time was how destructive this cycling between low-high-and-low oil prices would actually be in the first instance of it, and what a toll it would take right off the bat. We can see now that our first journey through the cycle took out the most fragile of the complex systems we depend on: capital finance. As a result, a huge amount of capital (say $14 trillion) has evaporated out of the system, never to be seen again (and never to be deployed for productive purposes). It will be harder for the USA to rebound from the grievous injury to this crucial part of the overall system, and Europe has foundered similarly -- though the European nations are not burdened to the same degree by the awful liabilities of suburbia.
Even if these advanced economies -- throw in Japan too -- remain moribund, the price and supply prospects for oil look ominous. My own guess is that the price of oil has overshot on the low end just as it overshot on the high end, and that, when all is said and done, we'll still see an upwardly trending price line over the long haul. The plunge, which began right after the $147 peak in July 2008, was as much the result of banks, hedge funds, and individuals dumping oil investments and positions to raise cash as it was a matter of the markets predicting a sharp fall-off in economic activity (and supposedly oil consumption). The truth is that demand destruction for oil in the USA has been surprising mild compared to the drop in price. Jim Hansen's Master Resource Report says that gasoline consumption dropped from 9.29 million barrels a day in 2007 to 8.99 million barrels a day for 2008. That's not much of a fall-off, especially compared to the price drop.

Sunday, January 04, 2009

OB's making plans......

Don't worry.
40 Reasons For Gun Control

40 Reasons for Gun Control

1. Banning guns works, which is why New York, DC, & Chicago cops need guns.

2. Washington DC's low murder rate of 69 per 100,000 is due to strict gun control, and Indianapolis' high murder rate of 9 per 100,000 is due to the lack of gun control.

3. Statistics showing high murder rates justify gun control but statistics showing increasing murder rates after gun control are "just statistics."

4. The Brady Bill and the Assault Weapons Ban, both of which went into effect in 1994 are responsible for the decrease in violent crime rates, which have been declining since 1991.

5. We must get rid of guns because a deranged lunatic may go on a shooting spree at any time and anyone who would own a gun out of fear of such a lunatic is paranoid.

Friday, January 02, 2009

Damn that beer.........


THE IRATE NATION » Invention Of The Wheel

World History - As it Really Happened

Humans originally existed as members of small bands of nomadic hunters/gatherers. They lived on deer in the mountains during the summer and would go to the coast and live on fish and lobster in the winter.

The two most important events in all of history were the invention of beer and the invention of the wheel. The wheel was invented to get man to the beer. These were the foundation of modern civilization and together were the catalyst for the splitting of humanity into two distinct subgroups:

1. Liberals; and
2. Conservatives.

Once beer was discovered, it required grain and that was the beginning of agriculture. Neither the glass bottle nor aluminum can were invented yet, so while our early humans were sitting around waiting for them to be invented, they just stayed close to the brewery. That’s how villages were formed.

Some men spent their days tracking and killing animals to B-B-Q at night while they were drinking beer. This was the beginning of what is known as the Conservative movement.

Other men who were weaker and less skilled at hunting learned to live off the conservatives by showing up for the nightly B-B-Q’s and doing the sewing, fetching, and hair dressing. This was the beginning of the Liberal movement.

Some of these liberal men eventually evolved into women. The rest became known as girliemen.

Some noteworthy liberal achievements include the domestication of cats, the invention of group therapy, group hugs, and the concept of Democratic voting to decide how to divide the meat and beer that conservatives provided.

Over the years conservatives came to be symbolized by the largest, most powerful land animal on earth, the elephant. Liberals are symbolized by the jackass.

Modern liberals like imported beer (with lime added), but most prefer white wine or imported bottled water. They eat raw fish but like their beef well done. Sushi, tofu, and French food are standard liberal fare.

Another interesting evolutionary side note: most of their women have higher testosterone levels than their men. Most social workers, personal injury attorneys, journalists, dreamers in Hollywood and group therapists are liberals. Liberals invented the designated hitter rule because it wasn’t fair to make the pitcher also bat.

Conservatives drink domestic beer. They eat red meat and still provide for their women. Conservatives are big-game hunters, rodeo cowboys, lumberjacks, construction workers, firemen, medical doctors, police officers, corporate executives, athletes, Marines, and generally anyone who works productively. Conservatives who own companies hire other conservatives who want to work for a living.

Liberals produce little or nothing. They like to govern the producers and decide what to do with the production. Liberals believe Europeans are more enlightened than Americans. That is why most of the liberals remained in Europe when conservatives were coming to America. They crept in after the Wild West was tamed and created a business of trying to get more for nothing.

Here ends today’s lesson in world history:

It should be noted that a Liberal may have a momentary urge to angrily respond to the above before forwarding it. A Conservative will simply laugh and be so convinced of the absolute truth of this history that it will be forwarded immediately to other true believers and to more liberals just to piss them off.

Hat Tip > FLR

Thursday, January 01, 2009

This seems so unimportant now.....

OB will have to deal with his nut jobs worrying him over polar bears to dumb to get off icebergs. (yes, I know better but I like to stick these poor bastards.)

How do you bail out the arctic?

Happy New Year my ass.
The Hot Air of Climate Change, Part 1 - Scragged

1. Is the weather changing?

In the 1970s, as satellite technology and global communications began to be widely available, scientists noticed a disturbing trend: the Earth appeared to be getting cooler. Various conferences and symposia were convened to discuss the available evidence, which did indeed indicate cooling from about 1945 on. Eventually, this concern made it into the popular press, culminating in an April 28, 1975 Newsweek article, "The Cooling World." Other popular books and even songs on the subject appeared, reflecting the widespread concern.

Needless to say, these worries were entirely misplaced. We have not entered a new ice age; far from it. Today's worry du jour is the exact opposite, one of global warming.

It's easy to imagine that figuring out whether the earth is warming or not, should be fairly straightforward. After all, we all know how to use a thermometer, and they have been around for several hundred years, how hard can it be? It's not nearly that simple though.

For one thing, the location you are taking the temperature matters. I could prove any trend I please, if I'm allowed to cart around the thermometer in between measurements. Heck, if I took the temperature of the North Pole, and compared it to a 1945 measurement in Tahiti, I could conclusively prove that the Ice Age was already here. I could do the same thing even staying in one place - the top of Mt. Washington, NH - if I'm allowed to vary the time of year in between. Clearly, the only relevant measurements are ones where the reading has been taken in the same place for a long time, and on a regular basis over the course of the year.

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Hmmm.......

Russia invades Georgia and then, shortly after, oil prices tank. Insuring an economic comeback temporarily. Obama gets credit, then my generation retires and  the economy tanks for many years.

One theory anyway.

Of course the economy may not recover under OB and we kill each other scrambling for food at the local Walmart. How about hoarding a large supply in the closet next to your illegal Glock.

You're going to need it.

Too many broke dicks lose everything they own and they get a touch of envy. Bang you dead.

Got food stashed, guns loaded and car packed? I have plenty of room up here  in redneck heaven. Still have $45000 coming in. Walmart rules here at least a couple of more years.

You have to like snow, though. It has snowed here so far this season 13 out of 14 days. And another 7 days predicted ahead.

The summers make up for it. Fish like you wouldn't believe. No gang bangers though. Hardly any crime. Quiet. Cheap living.

Oh yea. No rap music!


The Oil Drum | Discussions about Energy and Our Future

Not any longer. Simply put, Russia is in trouble. Its much-ballyhooed $600 billion cash reserve base dropped by a quarter by Dec. 1, to about $450 billion, and even further since. Much of that has gone to bailing out banks, select oligarchs and propping up the ruble. But with no sign of an end to the global recession, Putin is allowing the ruble’s value to decline rather than pouring limitless reserves into the currency. This Wall Street Journal interview with down-on-his-luck oligarch Oleg Deripaska tells it extremely well. (Note to Barack Obama’s Russia team: South Stream is on hold for at least 18 months or two years; Russia doesn’t have the wherewithal to finance it; Nord Stream is more likely, but again financing will be a problem. That is an opening that was not present before the financial crisis.)

Monday, December 29, 2008

I told you so........

The government bought the Autos. A black hole if there ever was one. The Dems can not compete without union money.

Remember helium vendors? In case we needed  blimps to fight the next war?  We need these companies for the same reason.

Attacking Europe.

Hey! You never know. After all they will be Moslem entities.
The Great Debate » Debate Archive » Bush’s auto plan will test Obama’s union loyalties | The Great Debate |

Barack Obama owes organized labor a huge debt for his November victory. UAW President Ron Gettelfinger can be expected to try to sell Obama labor agreements that appear to create more concessions than are real and leave the Detroit Three in the red going forward.

Fooling Obama would create loans the Detroit Three never can really repay. The government could force payment at the expense of the next creditors in line—the large U.S. banks—but the federal government is already subsidizing their losses.

One way or the other ordinary citizens who don’t earn nearly the pay and benefits autoworkers receive would be paying taxes to subsidize their rather generous lifestyles, much as taxpayers are financing the bloated bonuses at large New York banks requiring federal dole to stay afloat.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

What more can be said.........

Click and read the whole thing. He only touches the extent of statism that has ruined our world.
Thank Goodness I Live in a Free Country by Don Cooper

I was talking with some friends over the Christmas holiday break and they were commenting on how lucky we are that we live in a free country where we have the liberty and the opportunity to live our lives the way we want and are not controlled by the government like in other countries.

So I started thinking about a particular day of mine a couple months ago:

I woke up in the morning in my FHA (Federal Housing Administration) approved home that was built in accordance with USDOE (Department of Energy), FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission), and numerous CFRs (Code of Federal Regulations).

I went to the bathroom t

Saturday, December 27, 2008

I knew it.......

According to these nut jobs the dirty bastards did it on purpose! Saved all that money and bribed us to spend it on junk. No wonder were fucked up.

Can you believe these guys?

Personally sounds like ufo's are responsible. No wait bigfoot.

Yea those sons a bitches.
The Reckoning - Chinese Savings Helped Inflate American Bubble - Series - NYTimes.com

WASHINGTON — In March 2005, a low-key Princeton economist who had become a Federal Reserve governor coined a novel theory to explain the growing tendency of Americans to borrow from foreigners, particularly the Chinese, to finance their heavy spending.

The problem, he said, was not that Americans spend too much, but that foreigners save too much. The Chinese have piled up so much excess savings that they lend money to the United States at low rates, underwriting American consumption.

This colossal credit cycle could not last forever, he said. But in a global economy, the transfer of Chinese money to America was a market phenomenon that would take years, even a decade, to work itself out. For now, he said, “we probably have little choice except to be patient.”

Friday, December 26, 2008

Written in 2006......

Oil was about $60 a barrel. This guy is on to something. Probably means shortages. Remember rice and beans missing on the shelves earlier this year?

Could be interesting as trucking companies struggle through the first quarter. Walmart's fleet is strong and stands to do great.

However, all bets are off on our competitors. Expect some to disappear as union contracts squeeze bottom lines.

Fertilizer shortages in march should pop up and scare the beJesus out of us. Getting food on the shelves is tied to a long line of trucks. I know. I drove food from California to Boston.

This could come to a screeching stop. Prepare now.

Remember, independent drivers went bust when diesel prices boomed. Some of these guys are not coming back. I would be surprised if my former employer is still in business with his two truck operation.

Neither will food imports come back. Foreigners will have their own  problems. Food riots sounds about right.
 

Oh yes. Get to Walmart and pick up any junk you didn't get last week. Everything is on sale by next weekend.

 Everything.
Kunstler's Forecast 2007

I will be so bold to say that I called the housing crash correctly last year, though the worst symptoms are slow to present for technical reasons. There's no question that the action on the real estate scene changed drastically in mid-year. The implosion of this mighty structure of fraud, folly, and misinvestment so far has taken place in such breathtaking slow-motion that its victims have not really felt the pain from the falling bricks yet. By late summer, buyers started evaporating. Real estate signs planted in lawns last June are still sitting there on New Years. Prices have come down a bit in many markets, including most of the hotties such as Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Boston. But the buyers are still not bidding. Meanwhile, the sellers have dug in, determined to get something at least close to their wished-for inflated prices, egged on by their representatives, the realtors. This mutually reinforcing psychology cannot hold indefinitely. Many of these sellers don't have the luxury to wait around forever. Some have had to move to other houses in other places because of job changes, and are stuck paying two mortgages. Many are stuck with "creative" mortgages that all the evil ingenuity of the human mind conjured in recent years to enable the feckless to live above their means -- adjustable rate, payment optional, no money down contracts that suckered buyers into booby-trapped obligations whose initial low-interest terms lured them in and are now set to blow up in their faces as terms automatically re-set upwards to higher rates and "optional" deferred payments get backloaded onto the principal, putting the mortgage holders so far underwater on their contracts that a tour of the Titanic would feel like a day at the beach. Read the whole article

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

The AUW is now a ward of the Federal government.....

They should now survive as long as the government does.

Expect every Dem constituency  to get in on the band wagon. We'll be building electric cars with nowhere to plug them in.

Wait! Now everybody needs a subsidy for their own personal windmill.

Wait! What about all those bird deaths?

Wait! Give everybody a solar panel.

Wait! They will warm the planet and kill the polar bears!

Shit!!

Damn that Bush anyways.

What a country!

Monday, December 22, 2008

This rule is doomed........

But won't matter in a few years. My parents generation will need their stock market money  to eat. Old codgers with huge house and credit card payments can't continue to work for ever.

However, not to worry, it all comes to a screeching halt in the next 5 or 10 years anyways. I figure 9 out of 10 retirees will be spending their personal savings saving their children from the living on the streets over the next couple of years. Not much left except for their Social Security checks and government retirement checks robbed by consumer price index tinkering. These checks have got to shrink relative to the coming inflation to get us out of the Depression.

Somebody has to pay.

Yes children, Ob needs that magic wand a poppin' to save this mess.  And save his presidency.

Hilary and McCain will be sighing in secret relief as this crap continues to unravel.

Maybe we can elect Ron Paul  and pay off all those trillions of printing press money to save our ass.

Not!

The problem is that if the government changes the law they will have to fear we will finish  draining what's left of  the stock market. Therefor, causing the destruction of all private wealth left in the world. So we bail the financial system until it quits.   Either that or give everyone  in the country a government check.

Even Walmart. Ha ha!

Wait that is the plan. But where do we get the money? China is collapsing in '09. Who will buy our bonds? Broke OPEC? Remember $40 oil screws them big time. Of course saving that $300 or so billions every year would make a difference. Unfortunately for the world, we still rule militarily.

Look out small oil producing countries.

We are that broke.
Memo to Washington: Here's how to help retirees - Dec. 22, 2008

Don't force retirees to sell at the bottom. When you save in a traditional IRA or 401(k), you pay no taxes on the money you contribute and your investment earnings are sheltered from taxes during your working years. Once you reach the age of 70½, though, the IRS comes calling in the form of so-called required minimum distributions (RMDs). At that point you must start taking annual withdrawals from your 401(k) or traditional IRA (based on your life expectancy) and pay income tax on those funds. Fail to do this and the IRS will slap you with a nasty penalty.

Thanks to the vicious bear market, this rule is essentially forcing retirees to sell at the worst possible time. Even many ostensibly "safe" investments, like mutual funds designed to generate income for retirees, have plunged. Technically speaking, you can satisfy the law by simply transferring stocks, bonds or funds from your retirement account to a regular brokerage account. But you'll still owe taxes on the amount you transfer; as a practical matter, you may need to sell at least part of your investment to pay the taxes.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Follow the money.........

50 billion stolen all by himself.

And they laugh at UFO stories.
The Catherine Austin Fitts Blog

I have started and managed several small businesses. It is hard to run one set of books for a small business. There are other people involved — not just the head of the company. There are bookkeepers, lawyers, accountants, regulators, tax preparers and auditors. The books have to be straight because so many people with so many different interests get in them. Brokerage accounts add another layer of complexity. Add money management and that is even more complexity.

And we are to believe that one guy could run a brokerage and money management firm with two sets of books and siphon off $50 billion? And no one knew?

This is the financial cover story equivalent of the yarn that a few devout Muslims hijacked two planes that hit skyscrapers that then magically collapsed leaving their passports and a copy of the Koran sitting on the sidewalk.

So…who has the $50 billion?

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Too early in the cycle for Depression.....

WE only have wait until my generation to starts taking out their money from the stock market to live on. We are still working but over the next 10 years we bail. No more tax incentives to stay in the market. To old and crippled to work. God knows Social Security can't keep us in the style we are accustomed to.

Goodbye DOW.

What results is that we have to take over oil countries to stave off the big "D".Printing and borrowing money will work for awhile, not well, but will keep the rich in power long enough to get the Empire off shore before we murder them .

Where it goes seems to be in question.

From Great Britain then to America, now where? I think they blew it by outsourcing our manufacturing. Even ruling classes make mistakes.

If not we would still be Romans.

History, remember that class?, reminds us that broke dicks only take over their energy, food, and real estate with military excursions. Not good plan for long. After a awhile it cost more in real wealth than we get.
 
In turn causing societal collapse and bad accents.

Of course, in truth, capitalism breeds it's own destruction. If you share the wealth too thinly you break you working class into competing for scraps. Your elites end up haggling for political advantage to get access to dwindling resources. Dog eat dog ensues.

On the other hand, keep the wealth to the elites and the working classes break out the the guillotines.

Not good for ruling class  if you know what I mean.

However, if your working class can be kept productive (IE making things) a society stay manageable. Instead of squabbling over welfare checks, bailout funds and government payola we invest in our future. Taking care of our children, old fogies, and damsels in distress.  keeping the elites in yachts, cigars and pyramid schemes.

Not bankrupting the universe if you follow me.

Those of us who supported the Empire I guess should of known better. People are people and they really never change.

Technically the word Depression is to prissy.

 Bet on China eating our  lunch. They got what it takes. Murderous elites. Unlike the Bushes, Clintons and Obamas these guys know how to straighten out the mud people baby.

It could be a "Dark Age."


RGE - Interview with U.S News & World Report: “The $700 Billion Bailout Isn’t Enough” and One Third Probability of a Japanese-style L-shaped Stagnation

Are we headed for a depression?

I don't believe we are going to be in a depression—we could end up like Japan that had essentially economic stagnation for a decade with deflation. You know, the "L"-shaped recession. At this point the "U"-shaped recession could turn into an "L"-shaped recession if we don't fix the financial system, and the credit crisis becomes worse and if we don't get a massive fiscal stimulus. So, a lot depends on our policy reaction. If our policy reaction is appropriate, by 2010 there will be some recovery of growth. The only risk is that the recovery of growth could be so weak that it feels like a recession even though we are technically out of it. So there is a risk of something like a Japanese-style, multiyear economic stagnation. I would not rule it out, but it is not my benchmark scenario. I think there is a one-third probability it will end up that way, but a two-thirds probability that we will end up in a severe, two-year-long recession. And that would be by any standard the worst recession that the U.S. has experienced in the last 60 years.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Bush passes auto bailout to OB.....

They got the money. What a bunch of stupids in Washington. Shows no one was serious about fixing the problem just passing the buck.

Here's how you give the car guys a big shot of help.....

Give everyone a voucher for $5000 good at any Ford, GM or Chrysler car dealership and let have it. Piss the Japanese off but what the Hell . They should join the AUW and bribe every some bitch in Washington and get their money's worth like every other asshole.

Any ways, my plan would give me a new 4 wheel drive Ranger (built by Japanese of course)  at about the same payments I have now. All I have to do is make a deal for cash back to pay off my Suzuki and trade in  my old Ford.

Hmm. Better write my Congress criminal and get 'er done.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Best explanation of Christmas ever given....

I'm always ready to piss off the fanatics heh heh. It's amazing how we get gulled into superstition and can't find a way out. Now, it's OK to be God-fearing but at least know your religions history. The story of the "Savior" is as old as mankind.

Yea I'm an old crank, what's your point!

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Wait till December 26.......

Wally World will go nuts with sales. Have to get rid of a lot of stuff. Especially tvs. Some stores will be OK others will have overstock. Most competitors will be dumping stuff to avoid carrying into a bleak winter sales season.

Our store sales is off big time and we have to see if it's just procrastination or savvy shoppers. People are tightening their belts whether they want to or not.

The company took our normal extra 10% on one large purchase at Xmas time and instead gave us the discount on all groceries. I saved 40 bucks or so because of storing for the winter.

At the time they decided this  food prices were booming and big ticket items prices were set to plunge.  For me, it worked out better.

Watch TV and computer prices  and see what I mean this winter after the holidays. Let alone cars, RVs, ATVs, houses, etc.

Anyways, colder this year than in many years they tell me. Around zero or below. Got the place all sealed and ready. Expect electric bills to go up. Don't forget taxes as local governments and utilities scramble for dollars. Got a job? Pay up. Need to feed all those bureaucrats. When they plan budgets they don't expect us to fall into poverty. Just get bigger, hire more paper pushers, soak the wage slaves.

Oops. Running short of those. Unemployment over 7% with no end in sight after holiday slowdown. I guess it's better here than California, Arizona, Florida or fill in the blank.

Construction on the highways is all we have to look forward to. President OB will wave  his magic wand and by 2010 we'll have all the bridges and over passes contracted out.

Until then?

Fed just cut interest rate to 0%. Yawn. I can't wait to buy more houses and junk while waiting for the the opening at the homeless shelter. How do unemployed broke dicks buy anything unless we get $5000 or so in stimulus money.

Then what?

Maybe we'll find out.
Report: Half of holiday shopping remains undone - Dec. 16, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With just over a week to go until Christmas, consumers have completed less than half of their holiday shopping - and millions have not even started yet, according to a report released Tuesday.

According to the National Retail Foundation's "Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions" survey, holiday shoppers said they had finished 47% of their gift shopping by the second week of December. That represents a significant drop from the 53% of gift purchases completed at the same time last year.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Take the kiddies money.....

Got to be unconstitutional that casinos can't get money from people under age 21. Let alone the broke dicks who can't swindle someone to support these guys.

Next thing you know they'll have to close and get real jobs. What the Hell is that all about.

Read the last line carefully:
Casinos rolling snake eyes in bad economy - Economy in Turmoil- msnbc.com

Still, the real issue is not who is allowed to gamble. It’s whether they have the money to do so, said Jim Duncan of Highland Hills, Ohio, who travels to Erie, Pa., three times a month to play the slots at the Presque Isle Downs racetrack.

Even though wagers may be down in the poor economy, some gamblers have powerful incentives to try and hit a jackpot, said Duncan, describing a fellow bettor he saw at one of the Presque Isle machines.

“The person had an eviction notice in his hand,” Duncan said.

Kind of convenient don't you think......

Every few years we run out of oil, then we find more. All we need is a price increase or tax cut. This time the economy collapsed when it happened. No really.
Oil prices are set to spike again | Well prepared | The Economist

The cost of production is no more static than the price of oil. Falling prices for important raw materials, such as steel and natural gas, should help to bring down development costs. By the same token, the cost of hiring some kinds of drilling rigs is falling. The strengthening dollar also helps, points out Paul Sankey of Deutsche Bank, since that tends to increase oil firms’ dollar-denominated revenue relative to expenses in other currencies.

But according to Francisco Blanch of Merrill Lynch, the rising cost of capital is likely to outweigh all these benefits. Tar-sands schemes, like most oil projects, are very capital-intensive and so very sensitive to changes in financing costs. He believes that higher borrowing charges could push the cost of new tar-sands developments as high as $150 a barrel by 2010. So if demand for oil has started growing again by then, and if tar sands remain the source of marginal production, then the oil price will have to rise back to this summer’s levels to stimulate increased supply. “The age of easy oil”, warns the Emirati minister, “is gone forever.”

Sunday, December 14, 2008

We would kill for 4.4 % growth.....


BBC NEWS | Business | World Bank predicts global gloom

World Bank predicts global gloom
peasants in Vietnam
Emerging economies will grow more slowly in 2009

The World Bank has forecast a significant decline in global economic growth in 2009 for both developed and emerging countries.

In a report assessing economic prospects, the Bank has predicted that the world's annual economic growth will slow to 0.9%, from 2.5% this year.

The rate of growth for emerging economies is expected to be around 4.5%, down from 7.9% in 2007.

The Bank said a deep global recession could not be ruled out.

And its forecast suggests that, on a per capita basis, world growth would be negative in 2009.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Kick back, read on, and shit yourself.....

Not taking any chances. Patti and I have spent about $500 this month on food because Wally World gave us a 10% discount on groceries.

Never know what will happen to the supply chain.

Times are going to be tough for farmers. Credit will be fucked up for awhile and grain priced have collapsed. Oil is nuts and so far the banks are holding all that bailout money for fixing their balances for the coming end of the quarter.

Remains to be seen whether this is just a blip in our economic history or the beginning of something bigger.

I'm hunkering down and watching the deflation make those of us with jobs better off. Gas hit $1.549 and no end to the bottom in sight. House prices for most and especially rents have come down big time even here in Idaho. Food prices have moderated. Pretty soon OB will give us a few more bucks and a free loan or two to get those cars and houses off the market.

Expect some taxes to go up as governments have to slash and borrow to pay their over extended budgets.

We would still be money ahead.

Of course, it could go the other way if OPEC collapses. Only a matter of time. Russia would be a their savior for awhile if they join but no one will be buying for the time being.

Somebody once said: "May you live in interesting times."
 
I thought he was bullshitting

8 really, really scary predictions - Bill Gross (2) - FORTUNE

The outcome essentially depends on the ability of the Obama administration to rejuvenate capitalism's "animal spirits" by substituting the benevolent fist of government for the now invisible hand of Adam Smith. Federal spending and guarantees in the trillions of dollars will be required to fill the gap created by the deleveraging of private balance sheets. In turn, lenders and investors alike must begin to assume risk as opposed to stuffing money in modern-day investment mattresses. The process will take time. Twelve months of the Obama Nation will not be sufficient to heal the damage of a half-century's excessive leverage. The downsizing of private risk positions - replaced by government credit - will also result in reduced profit margins and a slower rate of earnings growth after the bottom is reached.

Investors need to recognize these titanic shifts in market and public policies and be content with single-digit returns in future years. Perhaps the most lucrative pockets of value are in high-quality corporate bonds and preferred stocks of banks and financial institutions that have partnered with the government in programs such as the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). While their profitability may be restricted, their ability to pay interest and preferred dividends should be unhampered. Above all, stick to high-quality companies and asset classes. The road to recovery will be treacherous.

Friday, December 12, 2008

Here's for all you global warming believers........

Here's a guy who agrees that we have global warming. He just believes the Gore followers are  just wrong on solving it.

Most famously we need to save the polar bear.

OK. Quit shooting them.

 Like abstinence it works every time. Oops, we don't need world wide governance for that do we?

Of course, we can't have that and we won't. All these guys have to do is pick our pockets to get 'er done. Right?

Lord OB will take care of it.



Bjorn Lomborg - The Facts about the Environment

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Read the comments from Nobel Scientists....

Global warming global baloney
.: U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works :: Minority Page :.

The UN global warming conference currently underway in Poland is about to face a serious challenge from over 650 dissenting scientists from around the globe who are criticizing the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore. Set for release this week, a newly updated U.S. Senate Minority Report features the dissenting voices of over 650 international scientists, many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN. The report has added about 250 scientists (and growing) in 2008 to the over 400 scientists who spoke out in 2007. The over 650 dissenting scientists are more than 12 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.

The U.S. Senate report is the latest evidence of the growing groundswell of scientific opposition rising to challenge the UN and Gore. Scientific meetings are now being dominated by a growing number of skeptical scientists. The prestigious International Geological Congress, dubbed the geologists' equivalent of the Olympic Games, was held in Norway in August 2008 and prominently featured the voices and views of scientists skeptical of man-made global warming fears. [See Full report Here: & See: Skeptical scientists overwhelm conference: '2/3 of presenters and question-askers were hostile to, even dismissive of, the UN IPCC'

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

gee ya mean these guys have no influence on their local politicians?.....

You have to read the whole article, but basically we are talking nepotism. Starting with Kennedy all the way through with Jessie Jr. You'll be hearing a lot about Jr. Everyone is so surprised and shocked he would have OB's seat sold to him by the Gov of Illinois. Shocked!!!
The American Spectator : The Tainting of the President-Elect

The Tainting of the President-Elect

By Jeffrey Lord on 12.10.08 @ 1:05PM

Wait a minute.

"I had no contact with the governor what...."

That's the money quote from President-elect Obama in his first comment on the arrest of Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich for trying to sell Obama's Senate seat. What was that "what" about to become before Obama stopped himself in mid-sentence in front of the cameras as Al Gore and Joe Biden sat by, stonefaced? The word "whatsoever" perhaps? In which case, did the new president stop himself because he knew that to say "no contact whatsoever" was something that would be provably untrue? According to a now hastily retracted statement by aide David Axelrod, the president-elect had indeed "talked to the governor" about the vacancy.

Monday, December 08, 2008

I figure Ob takes the guns within 1 year....

Who's going to stop him?

Every big city and virtually all big state governments are  now in the possession of Washington elites. Usually referred to as Liberals. They have routed fiscal conservatives. They've won. Every one agreeing with them will be on bailouts. Those who oppose will be simply vilified and ignored.

Dems do it all the time with highway or school funds.

Libs have been plotting for years for this unbridled opportunity. Their plan is and has been simple: give everybody a check then threaten to take it back. Fall in line or cut off money to anyone who disagrees with them.

Very few politicians and government officials can stand in their way because the economy will suck. wait a year or so and see.

Unemployed or frightened constituents don't put up much of a fight. And with the cities turning into poverty filled Hell holes who can blame them.

Many of us can remember the 60's and the widespread big city riots and lawlessness. That's when  the Dems got the Republicans on board and poured money into these rat holes to staunch the violence.

They also ramrodded  draconian and unconstitutional gun laws through various legislatures. One side effect was that people who defended their property went to jail or were sued by criminals shot in the act. Criminals when caught went on vacation at taxpayer expense.

Ever hear of "white flight?"

Didn't fall out of the sky and bite us in the ass. As the media reported minorities robbing and shooting each other white folks bailed from the cities creating huge  losses of  taxes and spending.

In effect taking out the inner city economies.

Big mess for Washington. This eventually ended up as a guarantee of power for Libs. The cities were bailed out. Leading to today's unspoken mantra: vote for me and you get your check. Vote for the other guys and they take away your benefits. Good old class warfare.

Guaranteeing  these people became in effect, slaves to Government largess. This became the norm in politics where the government divides the loot from our paychecks and gives it to their constituencies.

Why else would anyone vote for these guys. You think the system is on the up and up? I think it's obvious that our government consists of competing gangs usually financed by rich insiders who manipulate the system to their advantage. Every once in awhile, a Ross Perot or a Ron Paul comes along and puts the fear of God into them. But these distractions don't last long.

However, what it looks like from the outside is that maybe buying off minorities is self defense after all. Keeping them out of our neighborhoods seems like government policy. 

Whether it's politically correct or not. This has become the norm. Take care of the turf and the turf takes care of you.

Here in redneck heaven Idaho we simply watch these people and shake our heads. Who wants anything to do with the government anyways. They steal your money and give it to crooks and bums who bribe them and their families.

Piss them off and it's Waco or Ruby Ridge, Idaho.
Congressman Ron Paul - Gun Control: Protecting Terrorists and Despots - Texas Straight Talk

In our own country, we should be ever vigilant against any attempts to disarm the people, especially in this economic downturn. I expect violent crime to rise sharply in the coming days, and as states and municipalities are even more financially strained, the police will be even less able or willing to respond to crime. In many areas, local police could become more and more absorbed with revenue generating activities, like minor traffic violations and the asset forfeiture opportunities of non-violent drug offenses. Your safety has always, ultimately been your own responsibility, but never more so than now. People have a natural right to defend themselves. Governments that take that away from their people should be highly suspect.



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Sunday, December 07, 2008

I think speechless fits here....


China Confidential: America's Cruelest or Dumbest TV Anchor

America's Cruelest or Dumbest TV Anchor




Dateline USA....

His name is Tom Brokaw. On Sunday's Meet the Press he suggested to his guest, President-elect Barack Obama, that now is the time to burden Americans with a fuel tax to drive the price of gasoline back up to $4 a gallon, which, Brokaw asserted, astonishingly, most Americans were prepared to pay.

Fortunately for he nation, which is in the grip of a worsening recession--probably the beginning of a depression-- Obama politely rejected Brokaw's cruel and idiotic idea.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 10:16 AM

Saturday, December 06, 2008

Now what will we do....

I was thinking I could cut my heating bill but no it's going to be colder. next thing you know Ob will have to cancel salt trucks. Not!!
Climate scientists say 2008 will be coolest year of the decade | Environment | guardian.co.uk

This year is set to be the coolest since 2000, according to a preliminary estimate of global average temperature that is due to be released next week by the Met Office. The global average for 2008 should come in close to 14.3C, which is 0.14C below the average temperature for 2001-07.

The relatively chilly temperatures compared with recent years are not evidence that global warming is slowing however, say climate scientists at the Met Office. "Absolutely not," said Dr Peter Stott, the manager of understanding and attributing climate change at the Met Office's Hadley Centre. "If we are going to understand climate change we need to look at long-term trends."

Prof Myles Allen at Oxford University who runs the climateprediction.net website, said he feared climate sceptics would overinterpret the figure. "You can bet your life there will be a lot of fuss about what a cold year it is. Actually no, its not been that cold a year, but the human memory is not very long, we are used to warm years," he said, "Even in the 80s [this year] would have felt like a warm year."

Friday, December 05, 2008

Resistance is futile......

Got your unemployment check? Come to Wally world. Everybody has to eat. Got plenty of beer. Even sell $1.749 gas. We even have enough ammo to stave off the Mexican  invasion.

Hell we  even take coupons from bankrupt competitors.

Need a job? You used to sneer at $9 bucks or so an hour. But now? Beats selling fries. Think OB will close us down now?

We are now hearing that great sucking sound caused by Clinton giving your job away to free trade gangsters. He took their money they got your job.

Maybe Hillary will get them back. Or maybe the rest of the Clinton gang OB hired will . Yea right.

The more things "change" the more they stay the same.

Expect the stock market to go up because all that printing press money is running for safety. Government bonds and U.S stocks are the place to be when it's time  to run for the tall grass.

Let's not forget that state governments will have to raise taxes because we ain't working no mo'. Think they'll welcome Wally world now?

Damn who would have thought that lending money to broke dicks would cause so many problems.

 Walmart is the result.
Wal-Mart sales rose 3.4% in November - Dec. 4, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wal-Mart Stores reported November sales that trounced expectations Thursday as the discounter continues to gain market share from its rivals in a worsening economy.

But the picture wasn't so jolly for many other leading store chains as more Americans retrenched on unnecessary purchases.

"With the exception of Wal-Mart, the situation last month [for retailers] was a little bit worse than expected," said Erin Armendinger, managing director of the Jay H. Baker Retailing Initiative at the Wharton School.


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Thursday, December 04, 2008

Arnie.....Socialism doesn't work....

Houses don't come cheap. Subsidizing  the broke dicks to buy them doesn't work. Rewarding moochers doesn't work either. California is the epitome of what does not work.  The whole political class does not work. Keep subsidizing what doesn't work is a recipe for disaster.

You want to improve the economy .....make everybody work. Make something to sell. Quit giving all of our jobs to foreigners. We are going to have to nationalize the illegals and find them work to pay my social security check. Where are all those jobs coming from? The auto companies?

We have to get it through our thick heads that just financing future Medicare recipients will destroy the planet. We vote. Avoid scaring us old geezers. Most of us have lost our retirement income in stocks and home equity. Is your house gaining in value? What if you only have a few years left before you get thrown out on your ass from Walmart or McDonalds.

As radical as it sounds, we have  guns. We have 200 million of them.Taking over small oil countries is not a serious obstacle. How long did it take us  to take over the world's third largest oil reserves in Iraq. 6 weeks.

Think Iran sleeps comfortably . They could be toast. Any one remember what we did to the Native Americans. How about Waco? Or even Ruby Ridge, Idaho.

Think riots. Blacks and Latinos are finally tasting success. Can we slam the door in their face. Think they'll jump in and finance my hideaway in Sarasota? Which illegal is going to buy me out in redneck heaven Idaho so I can go fishing with my brother in Tampa? Funny now?

This will sound extreme under "normal" circumstances but the Germans of my grandfather's generation stopped laughing as their government took over Czechoslovakia. Then invading Poland destroyed their world.

 As for us today, Saddam and his kids are worm food. When crunch time hits no one is safe. We burned millions of people to death in our past. Whether it makes us queasy or not we have a world wide reputation of getting what we want. But maybe this is just an exercise in fear mongering. Then again, maybe the world has to worry.

Unless......

Lord Obama will rescue them. Even the "Terminator".
California Housing Fiscal Emergency Part Deux: California Housing and Economic Dynamics in Massive Recession. » Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

The Governator announced to the newly minted politicians on Monday that California is now officially in a fiscal emergency. He had called for a special session trying to resolve the issue but lame duck politicians were on “fact finding” junkets or simply playing hide the salami while Rome burned. These are the people leading our state which is the most powerful economic engine in the 50 states of the union. What an absolute disgrace. These people are getting 6-figure salaries and the only job they have is to represent the populace and they can’t seem to even get that right. Our deficit is ballooning each and every day and budget analysts are saying that we may be broke by February. I’d argue that we are already broke but to many debt is the same as wealth. Today, a group of Governors including Arnold are meeting with President-elect Obama for what I would imagine should be a fascinating spectacle of who can hold out the largest tin-can.

The state budget deficit is gigantic. To first understand this mess, you have to follow the money:

California revenues

Keep in mind these are estimates. A state as large as California with expenses over $100 billion is no small thing. But anyone can quickly look at the above pie chart and understand we are in serious trouble. The two biggest sources of revenue for the state are personal income tax and sales tax. These 2 areas make up 71% of all revenue sources. Well, you can already see the problem arising here. First, as much as people want to believe that Black Friday was somehow going to resurrect the economy one day does not make a trend. People are not spending as much and subsequently sales tax revenues are going to shock us on the downside. In terms of the personal income tax, well you can pretty much kiss a large portion of that goodbye. High paying bubble jobs like real estate agents, mortgage brokers, financial analysts, construction workers, car salesmen, and others in the FIRE economy are no longer going to be paying Uncle Arnold their chunk of gravy train day salary. The personal income tax damage will be obvious come Q1 and Q2 of 2009.

In addition, those that have no job are literally paying zero into this pot and we are having more and more fall into this category especially here in California that now has the 3rd highest unemployment rate in the nation:

California unemployment rate


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Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Imagine trying do this for a living.....

I sold real estate during the early 90's. It was tough enough. Imagine when no one can qualify for a loan. This is along post but should be read to get an idea of the extent of the problem.

The California economy is the third largest in the world and depends mostly on the housing industry.

Which has disappeared.

What really hurts is that the worst hits in 2009. I got out just in time. Unemployment in Riverside is now close to 10% and climbing. My niece  lost her house a couple of months ago after taking in her mother who had ended up homeless.

My daughter's husband is a union carpenter working commercial real estate projects still under contract. These contracts will probably disappear as who will need new office space. Maybe government as they will be the only ones hiring.

Laborers are now dime a dozen with plenty of Mexicans still to be nationalized by Ob's new administration putting even greater pressure on what few jobs there are. So much for the coming minimum wage hikes, right?

Xmas sales will be over in a week or so and who needs clerks in empty stores. Business has to empty their warehouses because excess inventory costs money and is taxed. Sales taxes will collapse putting even greater strain on local authorities to cope.

Firemen have to be paid or we completely wipe out whats left of the insurance companies . Literally thousands more will then become homeless. Democrats then lose their cushy jobs.

You get the idea.

Expect to see the new government under OB to hire everybody to build bridges and highways but this takes time. Be probably 6 months or so. Count on a big stimulus checks and big tax credits first.

One interesting idea I've come up with is for the banks give everyone a a new credit card wiping out much of the old balances. All that bank stimulus money has to end up in our hands as debt in order to crank up the consumers. Therefor, other forms of the essential credit moratorium will be instituted as  this will become necessary to save the system.

Count on measures to do so.

The stock market will rise if not boom here as Europe and Asia ships their money to our stock market looking for safety. Still have to get global shipping moving to save China's economy from collapsing. China needs to sell us everything we need and continue to buy our national debt. They also need the worlds commodities. We have become so intertwined on a global scale that all bailouts are universal now.

Read the above carefully. That's right. Broke dicks can't buy squat. We is broke.

Good luck, President OB.

I would expect a huge increase in crime. Up here in "Redneck Heaven" Idaho we just hunker down. Stock up on canned food and polish our hunting rifles. Have more deer and fish than dollars. I expect the job market to disappear for awhile. I'm warning my friends to hang on at Wally World  because things could get nasty. The local jobs, saw mills and such no longer exist. Empty stores don't need clerks. People with out money aren't  buying gas. Etc etc.

I guess we just wait for the new Messiah, OB to save us.


California Housing Fiscal Emergency Part Deux: California Housing and Economic Dynamics in Massive Recession. » Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

The L.A. median home price topped out at $550,000 in August of 2007. I know that it seems like a lot longer ago but only a year ago, were we sitting at the mountaintop. Now, the median home price for the county is $355,000. A drop of nearly $200,000 in one year. How would you feel if you bought at that $550,000 peak and now knew your home was only able to fetch $355,000 (if that) on the open market? I can tell you how many are feeling. Many are simply walking away from their homes. When I say walking away I don’t mean that they leave on their first miss payment. In fact, idiotic legislation like SB 1137 simply kicks the shiny empty Coke can down the road a few more months and allows many people to stay rent free in a home they clearly cannot afford. They will walk in droves next year. I’ve talked with a few contacts in the industry and they are telling me that if you have a 720 credit score and 25% down you can get a loan at 5.25% up to $725,000. Yet the traffic is not there. Why? Because how many people today have $181,000 sitting around for a down payment on a home? Also, you have to have debt-to-income ratios that keep you under 37% so let us take that $725,000 home and run the numbers:

Down payment: $181,000

Mortgage 30-year fixed (5.25%): $3,003 (Principal and Interest)

Taxes and Insurance: $755

Total monthly payment (PITI): $3,758

Needed net monthly income: $10,156

You will need a monthly net income of $10,156 to afford this home even after putting $181,000 down if we want to keep the 37% DTI ratio with net income. Yes, you’ll have tax deductions but keep in mind that monthly nut of $3,758 comes out of your monthly cash flow stream. You reap the rewards when you do your taxes. But let us not get caught up in missing the bigger picture. There is such a tiny amount of people in California that fall within this range that it is comical. That is why sales have fallen. People are missing the point. It is all about income and jobs. It always was about this. If the median U.S. income was $100,000 I assure you we wouldn’t be having this discussion. But the fact of the matter is the median income is only $46,000.

Many are now losing even that median income job. That’ll depress wages and home prices further. And California had this incestuous relationship with housing. That is, many of the high paying jobs simply existed as a leech to the bubble. Now that the host is gone the vector can no longer survive in the current ecological system. That is simply a fact.

Even with all these foreclosure moratoriums and hackneyed responses to the bubble, the foreclosure rate is still through the roof:

Nationwide foreclosures



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Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Give me that old time religion......

 

It's possible the Greens will win. We all end our sorry lives eating dirt, living in a mud hut and slaughtering each other with stone tipped spears.

I prefer the Empire. Every left wing nut's nightmare. Taking over small oil producing countries and civilizing  them. (though I prefer non-violent means)

I  and millions like minded people  will work, save, and support the only system that has brought wealth of immense proportion to the "common man". That's how we vote.

Whether the savages like it or not.

Our ancestors lived in perfect misery until conquered by technologically advanced civilizations and taught to read, clothe, feed and protect themselves. Through the centuries we have modified this system to generate a better life for all. this has been the natural order of things. That's what  people always strive for.... leaving the world a  better place for their children.

 In the process, a great Empire has been created. Today we call it Capitalism. Most of the world has been brought in, some kicking and screaming, to a life of full bellys, warm houses and clean sexual partners. Where their children dream of gifts and have playtime. Where we live side by side with people we don't even like. Without fear.

Nothing has done more for the majority of mankind to serve our collective needs. No political or competing economic system ever invented can long survive resisting it. 

Capitalism "teaches a man to fish, feeding him for ever". Those people who embrace the Empire,  eat, live under a solid roof, have productive things to do and have the free time to invent religions and political theories to argue over. Those who don't, die miserable lives. (Africa, anyone?)

The Empire rolls over Nazis, Commies, Religious nut jobs, and just plain old fashion Fascist. Yes, just  as the Commies found out, the  Mullahs are screwed. Keep bringing their elite's children to our schools and they will belong to us. Give them "baywatch" reruns. Teach their women to "just say no". We win.

That's why they hate us.

Resistance is futile.

Which brings us to today's topic.

I like nothing more than experts who agree with me.

Fortunately this crap is off the table for now. All we need is to waste more resources on a problem we can do nothing about even if it was real. You would have to shut down the world economy and start over. Not going to happen. Take a nuclear war to do so. However, watching today's present crisis unfold may get us thinking the system  may have  become unrepairable. Not a chance. Temporary glitch. We'll figure it out. We always do.

Meanwhile, history teaches us that Capitalism embraces all new religions and swallows them. Environmentalism will soon be a complete subset of the pantheon we have created under freedom of religion. Which is:

You can believe any damn fool thing you want as long as we can monetize it.

Gore and the Global Warming Fraud Exposed : EarthFrisk Blog

The Founder of the Weather Channel

Eminent Meteorologist John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel says:

There is no significant man made global warming. There has not been any in the past, there is none now and there is no reason to fear any in the future. The climate of Earth is changing. It has always changed. But mankind’s activities have not overwhelmed or significantly modified the natural forces.

Through all history, Earth has shifted between two basic climate regimes: ice ages and what paleoclimatologists call “Interglacial periods”. For the past 10 thousand years the Earth has been in an interglacial period…. [where] the Earth warms up, the glaciers melt and life flourishes. Clearly from our point of view, an interglacial period is greatly preferred to the deadly rigors of an ice age. Mr. Gore and his crowd would have us believe that the activities of man have overwhelmed nature during this interglacial period and are producing an unprecedented, out of control warming.
Well, it is simply not happening. Worldwide there was a significant natural warming trend in the 1980’s and 1990’s as a Solar cycle peaked with lots of sunspots and solar flares. That ended in 1998 and now the Sun has gone quiet with fewer and fewer Sun spots, and the global temperatures have gone into decline. Earth has cooled for almost ten straight years. So, I ask Al Gore, where’s the global warming?

Obama Administration Will Tackle Climate Change

Yea right.


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